Report Summary
This report analyzes Japan’s preparations to evacuate and support internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Okinawa prefecture in the event of a Taiwan Strait contingency.
It finds three major weaknesses in current Government of Japan (GOJ) civil protection planning:
- unrealistic assumptions about political decision-making and crisis conditions;
- unclear and inconsistent evacuation destinations that undermine public trust and local preparedness; and
- planning that treats displacement as short-term despite the likelihood of prolonged evacuation.
Drawing on lessons from the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear accident, the report argues that IDP policy should assume long-term displacement from the outset. It recommends early provision of long-term housing, needs-based support rather than rigid eligibility criteria, improved IDP registration and communication systems, closer cooperation with NGOs, and stronger local administrative capacity.
While focused on Japan, the findings also offer lessons for European governments planning for displacement caused by armed conflict, climate change, or natural disasters.
Author
Mina Pollmann is a Japan Research Fellow at the Leiden Asia Centre. Her research focuses on Japan’s security and diplomacy, the U.S.–Japan alliance, and Indo-Pacific security. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from MIT and has previously worked at the U.S. Department of State, the RAND Corporation, and TV Tokyo.
Project
This report is part of Young Japanologist: The Next Generation, a Leiden Asia Centre capacity-building project supporting early-career scholars of modern Japan. The project is partly funded by the Isaac Alfred Ailion Foundation (IAAF).
